North Melbourne value in: 1919 points (Jed Anderson 338 points, Pick 38 = 800 points, Pick 40 = 780 points)
Hawthorn value in: 1625 points (Pick 15 = 1040 points, pick 55 = 585 points)
Verdict: Fair (Hawthorn get back 0.85 points of value for every point let go)
Valued on future output projected from past output, Jed Anderson is not worth much. He has struggled to break into Hawthorn’s side, playing 10 games in 3 years, providing no basis on which to assume he can contribute a lot in future. At VFL level he hasn’t starred in Liston Medal or Box Hill best and fairest voting.
He was a pre-listed zone player from the NT, traded to Hawthorn as an effective straight swap for Sam Gilham so has no value via his draft pick (and Gilham was nearly worthless so Jed has no implied value that way). We know little about him. He’s fast, presumably talented. North want that. That Hawthorn glow helps raise his stocks. But in the end he has given us nothing quantitative with which to value him very highly at all.
North are taking a punt, but they’re not risking much by doing so. We read this trade as valuing Anderson at virtually nothing. Applying the AFL draft chart valuations instead (which as discussed earlier, we think undervalues later second round picks), Anderson comes out worth pick 40 in this trade (Hawthorn gets 1121+207 and North get 465+429 implying 425 points for Anderson). Either way, the swap looks fair no matter how little Anderson is worth. This is because while pick 15 has a better chance of yielding good value, plenty of good players with substantial careers have some out of picks around 38 and 40. With Anderson almost as unknown and speculative as a draftee would be, North have used pick 15 and 55 to give themselves three shots at players to provide future contributions.
Best/Worst players chosen at each draft position
Best:
Pick 15: Scott Camporeale (252 games), Brady Rawlings (254 games), Max Hudghton (234 games)
Pick 38: Cameron Ling (246 games), Brendan Fevola (204 games), Sam Reid (102 games)
Pick 40: Michael O’Loughlin (300 games), Gary Ablett (274 games), Matthew Lappin (251 games), Jobe Watson (200 games)
Pick 55: Chris Newman (268 games), Sam Fisher (216 games), Robbie Gray (136 games)
Worst:
Pick 15: Daniel O’Keefe (0 games), Joel McKay, Nick Smith (4 games)
Pick 38: David Dighton, David Innella, Michael Handby, Dayle Garlett (0 games)
Pick 40: Travis Casserly, Tom Curran (NM) (0 games), James White (4 games)
Pick 55: Michael Still, Craig Black, Matthew Belleville (0 games)
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